Weight management

What is the three-point estimation method in project management?


weighted factor scoring model project management

The three-point estimation method (ThreePointEstimation) in project management is a commonly used estimation technique, which is often used to evaluate important elements of projects such as time and cost. The method is based on statistical principles and historical data to enhance the accuracy of predictions. The core idea is to calculate a more accurate predicted value by collecting multiple estimates.

Specifically, in the three-point estimation method, each task has three estimation periods: the most optimistic estimate (Optimistic Estimate), the most pessimistic estimate (PessimisticEstimate), and the most likely estimate (MostLikelyEstimate). The most optimistic estimate refers to the time required to complete the task under the most ideal situation; the most pessimistic estimate refers to the time required to complete the task under the most adverse situation; and the most likely estimate is the task completion time based on historical experience and expert judgment.

According to these three estimates, the forecast time of the task can be calculated using the following formula:

forecast time = (most optimistic estimate period 4 * most likely estimate period most pessimistic estimate period)/6

Where 4 is a fixed number, also known as a weighting factor, used to emphasize the most likely estimate period.

Through the three-point estimation method, project managers can be helped to more objectively and accurately evaluate the completion time of tasks, and provide a better basis for project plans and budgets. At the same time, in this process, it is also necessary to consider the possible risks and deviations of different tasks, such as technical difficulty, quotas, etc., and make appropriate adjustments and corrections to achieve better control of project costs, time and resources.

What is a 5c value management system?

The 5C value management system (hereinafter referred to as the “5C system”) is a set of practical tools for value management that take financial management as the starting point, take the discounted value of the company’s cash flow as the foothold, and run through the company’s business practices.

It synthesizes the exploration and summary of the transformation and development process of large diversified enterprise groups for many years and can be shared. It absorbs the insights of many managers with different backgrounds and outstanding performance. It is also the author’s practice and thinking on enterprise management over the past 25 years.

The author joined China Resources Group, a highly representative diversified enterprise group in China, in 2001. During this period, he participated in the company’s historic transformation from Hong Kong to the mainland.

At the end of 2007, the author returned to the Hong Kong group headquarters from Shanghai to be directly responsible for financial management and promote financial transformation. In response to the problem of weak value management, he creatively constructed the 5C system. In 2012, he released the complete content of the 5C system covering systems, guidelines, tools (diagrams), statements (sub-business), and cases (practice summaries), and implemented it at the group headquarters and various business units.

By 2017, China Resources’ value management practice had achieved obvious results. The 5C concept was deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Value management elements became daily management methods, and value factors such as returns, growth, and risks became common business language.

The 5C system has not only been widely recognized by China Resources managers, but has also become the thinking mode and management tool of financial managers at all levels.

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